Focus on locating companies at the beginning of a cycle. The underlying businesses in the portfolio would exhibit sound financial management and leadership qualities. The goal would be to find businesses in sectors that are consolidating.
We continue to be cautious of paying infinity prices for excellent firms and are leery of corporations taking significant financial risks. To do this, we focus on companies that are just beginning a cycle and are ready to be patient while they grow. Our portfolio selections’ low leverage and low valuations allow us to concentrate on risk management. The benefits come from markets and economic cycles.
Investment Objective
The investing goal is to find businesses that exhibit strong leadership and financial discipline. The goal would be to find businesses in sectors that are consolidating.
Pay Attention To Supply-Side Economics Supply Is Consistent
- Capacity utilization
- Balance Sheet Growth
Demand Is An Extrapolation Of Past Growth Rates
Industry Capital Cycles: It is important to capture these cycles
- Anticipate v/s participate
Focused Industries
Monopolistic/Consolidators of the Industry
- Preference for consolidating businesses
- Companies gaining market share with no change in capital employed
- Companies with the lowest cost in their industry
- Leaders at the end of consolidating cycle usually end up with higher market share and pricing power
Capital efficient business
- Companies that migrate upwards from a low RoE
- Look for capital employed to be controlled
- Cash flow positive nature of the business with low gearing
Low Financial Leverage
- Companies with negligible debt
- Businesses leveraging into an economic upcycle & deleveraging at the top of the cycle
Low valuations
- “Out of favour” businesses where the current value of the stock reflects its depressed earnings
- EV / Sales
- Market Cap / Cash Profit (Flows)